Intereses de la FED


Nuevamente ha ocurrido un pequeño milagro y el comunicado de la FED que animo a los inversores en los mercados financieros norteamericanos permitiendo un cierre en positivo, también fue el propulsor para el cierre en positivos de los mercados financieros asiáticos.

Al factor mencionado se le unió la apertura después de las fiestas del Hang Seng que se apuntó a la subida del resto de mercados asiáticos de esta semana y permitiendo una subida media del 0,5%.

Por mercados, el Hang Seng cerró un unos beneficios del 1,64%,  el Kospi también consiguió cerrar en positivo a pesar de los datos publicados sobre la disminución de su crecimiento a lo largo del 2012 y ganó un 0,25%.

En el lado negativo tenemos al Nikkei que cerró con una pérdida del 0,41% influido por su débil  crecimiento y por la fortaleza del Yen que sigue cruzándose con el dólar por encima de ¥77.

Aunque aparentemente el mercado este en alza, sigue siendo persistiendo una tendencia bajista basada en la incertidumbre de la resolución de la crisis en Europa y en las consecuencias de dicha crisis en la economía real de Asia.

Por lo que respecta a la disminución del crecimiento de Corea del Sur, el más bajo en los últimos dos años, fue del 0,4%, mientras que en el trimestre anterior fue del 0,8%. Esta disminución del crecimiento ha hecho que las previsiones de crecimiento hayan cambiado y ahora el objetivo de crecimiento sea del 3,7%, frente al anterior 4,5%.

La bajada está directamente relacionada con la crisis europea que está afectando a los mercados asiáticos donde las exportaciones suponen un alto porcentaje de su PIB. Sirva de ejemplo que el pronóstico de crecimiento de las exportaciones al 7,4%, frente a un crecimiento en el año 2011 del 20%.

Otro elemento distorsionador está siendo la política del RBI en la India. EL Banco Central está llevando una política para el estímulo de la economía en la misma línea de Europa, comprando deuda del Estado. Mi pregunta es sencilla, ¿ha funcionado en Europa?, la respuesta es no. Pocos aprenden de los errores de los demás y el RBI ha promocionado un mercado de deuda basado en sus compras y que al menor rumor de disminución de las mismas el mercado se hunde. Estas políticas viciadas interfieren en el normal funcionamiento de los mercados taponando las heridas en falso. Lo que realmente debería hacer el RBI es bajar los tipos de interés ahora que la inflación está disminuyendo y la economía de la India necesita de manera urgente acceso al crédito y liquidez.

Por último y como algo relevante voy a añadir al análisis de hoy el comunicado de ayer de la FED y el enlace a la página de la FED donde se puede obtener más información.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some further improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed, and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has been subdued in recent months, and longerterm inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth over coming quarters to be modest and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that over coming quarters, inflation will run at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage backed securities in agency mortgage backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Following careful deliberations at its recent meetings, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has reached broad agreement on the following principles regarding its longer run goals and monetary policy strategy. The Committee intends to reaffirm these principles and to make adjustments as appropriate at its annual organizational meeting each January.

The FOMC is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates. The Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity facilitates well informed decision making by households and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncertainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy, and enhances transparency and accountability, which are essential in a democratic society.

Inflation, employment, and long term interest rates fluctuate over time in response to economic and financial disturbances. Moreover, monetary policy actions tend to influence economic activity and prices with a lag. Therefore, the Committee's policy decisions reflect its longer run goals, its medium term outlook, and its assessments of the balance of risks, including risks to the financial system that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.

The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer run goal for inflation. The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. Communicating this inflation goal clearly to the public helps keep longer term inflation expectations firmly anchored, thereby fostering price stability and moderate long term interest rates and enhancing the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances.

The maximum level of employment is largely determined by nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor market. These factors may change over time and may not be directly measurable. Consequently, it would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment; rather, the Committee's policy decisions must be informed by assessments of the maximum level of employment, recognizing that such assessments are necessarily uncertain and subject to revision. The Committee considers a wide range of indicators in making these assessments. Information about Committee participants' estimates of the longer run normal rates of output growth and unemployment is published four times per year in the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections. For example, in the most recent projections, FOMC participants' estimates of the longer run normal rate of unemployment had a central tendency of 5.2 percent to 6.0 percent, roughly unchanged from last January but substantially higher than the corresponding interval several years earlier.
 
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